I don’t think the big 12 collapses any time soon. Their basketball could very well keep their TV deals good enough to pay teams to stay. The football TV deal is about the same as the ACC without any historically top teams. They could probably last for atleast 20 years if things keep improving like it has been for them.
“No one knows what the future has in store” is no excuse for ignorance. If I told you Haiti was going to be a superpower by 2030, you could tell me I don’t know what I’m talking about, even though you don’t know the future. And if you tell people this thing, which literally just lost 4 teams to the Big 12, was somehow going to become a Big 12 killer, you’re going to get called out on that.
1 of those teams was in the big 12 previously. This PAC 12 is also a basketball dominant league which guess what Houston, Arizona, and Kansas would be a target for that. The big 12 was the league everyone expected to fall 10 years ago who’s to say they won’t do that this time around. Will the big 12 fall who knows but you also missed the other 3 conferences I names. The ACC will probably want WVU, Cincy, and my UCF. The SEC because of other sports will probably want OSU, Kansas, and KSU.
I doubt the PAC will be able to pull teams out of the XII, even with their basketball star power from the new schools, because their new payout is a fraction of what the XII offers. The only poaching that could happen will be from the Super 2, and that won’t be for another five years at absolute minimum. Should the ACC fall in 2030, the XII would be wise to pick up their basketball studs, further weakening any sense of basketball power the PAC could have over the XII.
The big 12 would be smart to try to get those teams that could fit into the big 12 formula when/if the ACC falls. I would figure that the other 3 of the top 4 conferences would be first in line but if a mass exodus was to happen the PAC 12 would definitely make an attempt and might even persuade some teams