Anonymous _fred_ 6w

As always love your content. I think something you are missing is that the need for revisions is because the initial data points are ESTIMATES. For someone like you probably obvious but not to the average chap. The data gets revised as more data comes in that reflect the actual job market. My opinion is that these initial estimates are political. I think the FED and National banking systems are more political than they would like to admit …

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Anonymous #1 6w

That's absolutely right. Revisions are normal they improve accuracy over time. The reason revisions are normal is just what you say; the BLS publishes estimates. Predicting the future is very hard. However, the most recent 2024 and 2025 estimates have had much more error than has been historically seen in BLS estimates.

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Anonymous _fred_ 6w

If I had to guess there has been such rapid changes in the job market threefold with AI, tariffs, and deportation efforts. It is my knowledge that the BLS uses a “benchmark” in their models that only gets revised once a year. Maybe the change needed is not the model but the frequency the benchmark is changed due to macro volatility. The macro environment and job market fluctuations is almost certainly causing this abnormal deviation. What else could be the solution to more accurate estimates?

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Anonymous #1 6w

This contrast of a static benchmark and a drifting job market seems to be an issue …

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Anonymous _fred_ 6w

What could cause this? • Uncertainty estimates not being communicated properly • Inaccurate statistical models • Flawed data collection methods ... • Political motives

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Anonymous _fred_ 6w

BTW saw your post with YChart data. I use that for my job. Love the platform

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