Wouldn’t be surprised, but he doesn’t need to blackmail him because Vance wouldn’t have a career without Thiel. Thiel gave him a vc job where all of Vance’s coworkers said they never saw him work because he was too busy writing and publishing his book. Thiel then gave him money to start his own vc firm. And Thiel groomed Vance to become the successor to Trump. He set up the meeting to earn Trump’s endorsement for his senate campaign and funded the campaign itself.
Thiel probably played a role in Trump choosing Vance as his vp too. So while it would be funny if Thiel was blackmailing Vance, it’s more likely that Vance is just reciprocating all the years of favors that Thiel did for him. In other words, Vance was an investment by Thiel (along with other republican candidates he funded in 2022) and now he’s reaping the benefits by getting more government contracts and the policies he wants on AI and immigration