Anonymous #1 3d

That is truth

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Who knows though, Iran lowk making bank off of ransoms. 15 ships passed through today, each potentially paying $2 million Yuan to get through

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Right now we’re looking at about 20 years to rebuild their military, maybe it’ll happen a little sooner with that money but not by much, considering their major allies aren’t in a position to help as much as they used to be

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Anonymous #1 3d

Yeah facts, this war is going to set them back for ages. China has been pulling up with shipments of materials to construct missiles. It’s also believed that Russia might’ve completed a sale of a bunch of air defense systems that took down some jets on Friday.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

If this doesn’t go well for the US, there’s a high chance this war might actually solidify Iran in the Middle East

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

From what I understand it was MANPADS taking down the aircraft. I could be wrong on that point but Russia and Chinese systems have almost completely failed in this war

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

The issue is that what do they solidify themselves with? They have no military and they’ve turned the entire region against them. Before they least had a powerful armed force to back themselves up, they might close the Strait again but they’ve got no ships, aircraft, hardly any launchers and a rapidly depleting supply of missiles

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Anonymous #1 3d

I was watching a stream last night, I forget what system he said Iran could’ve used. Iran signed some deal ages ago for air defense systems, I just do not remember the name. Either those or MANPADS. Whatever it was, it did phenomenal work

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Anonymous #1 3d

They do have a military, just not a conventional military. Look at Ukraine for instance, it just takes a fuck ton of tiny little drones and missiles. Iran has a lot of that, and with China & Russia backing them up they might hold a chance at running the clock. China has an insane production line and i just wouldnt be surprised if they managed to keep the military generals up.

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Anonymous proud.american 3d

It’s just the way anarchy works. They do have a say, it’s up to the rest of the world to check it.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Iranian missile strikes have actually been increasing gradually, they’ve been digging out systems from caves that have been caved in by bombs.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

I understand that but as a deterrent factor, we’re seeing the region unite against them right at the point their conventional military has been lost, their asymmetric assets are quickly depleting, and their major allies aren’t in as much of a position to help. The Russians at least have to keep everything they can for themselves. And it worked so well for Ukraine because they’re defending against a land invasion, as stupid as Trump is I’m fairly certain he won’t push for that

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Ultimately I’m surprised on both ends by Iran’s performance. I thought they’d be doing a lot better, but I do recognize that their ability to loc down the Strait can be a problem

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Anonymous #1 3d

That’s true. I’m unsure about the land invasion. I think it would be ridiculously stupid, but they’re gathering troops in the area. So there’s really no predicting it. The gulf states aren’t putting enough pressure on Iran in my opinion. There’s not much effort from them. I know there was a UAE/Saudi drone found in Iran the other day but I haven’t heard anything more of it. Iran has been in survival mode for a long time, if they could survive this long, it’s definitely possible imo

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

The Saudis are extremely irritating. MBS is pushing for the war to go on longer but they haven’t done anything, considering the have the 5th largest defense budget in the world and a U.S.-trained Air Force I’d assume they’d be helping, especially since Riyadh and the oil fields have been hit multiple times.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

I’m certain the regime will survive, there’s no question about that, but I don’t think they’ll be viewed as the terrifying major power they were before this. The world has watched their entire military crumble and will start adjusting to get around their ability to control Hormuz

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Anonymous #1 3d

I’m waiting for Iran to hit more desalination plants. Once that happens the gulf states will not be able to afford peace.

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Anonymous #1 3d

They’ll be back in like a year bro let’s be real

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Anonymous proud.american 3d

It’s not like your boy has been able to open it

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Anonymous #3 3d

Maybe a few decades. This is going to set them back significantly.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

They said this last June so I don’t believe it for a second

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Anonymous #3 3d

A year? Do you understand how long it will take Iran to rebuild their entire navy and Air Force?

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Anonymous #3 3d

Last June they hadn’t lost almost every major warship and combat aircraft in their arsenal

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Anonymous #3 3d

Yeah the difference is that those were the words of politicians while this is a genuine analysis of the damage to Iran. It’ll be decades, the damage done now is significant and it’s not stopping.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

I guarantee they will be getting more dangerous instead of less. They don’t need a conventional force to escalate and they’ve showed us that time and again

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Anonymous #3 3d

Oh yes I know. But without the infrastructure, factories, electrical plants, how do you suppose they make anything significant enough to project power over time?

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Make bank by turning the strait into a toll lane and forcing a costly and dangerous US presence in it for years to come

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Anonymous #3 3d

Money won’t do anything without infrastructure

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Anonymous #3 3d

Keeping it closed ensures the strikes continue. The strikes continuing further degrades their defense and production capabilities. Further degradation of such capabilities means that they’ll eventually reach a point where they’ve got nothing to back up their threats with, and the Strait will be back open, this time with Iran unable to do anything about it

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Anonymous #3 3d

Iran’s best chance is a deal within the next few weeks that allows them to save face and keep a good portion of their capabilities intact, so they can rebuild for the potential re-igniting of conflict and be at a point they can actually influence the outcome

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Anonymous #1 3d

I haven’t heard of it, I’m in the gym rn about to wrap up. I’ll look at it when I get home 👍

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Yeah for sure, I posted about it on the page and was curious what you think. Enjoyed the talk so I figured you’d have some good contributions

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Anonymous #1 3d

Give me a little help to guide me into this conversation. What about the dilemma are you wanting to hear? I have a few thoughts, just not sure where to go lol

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Oh yeah for sure, I mean nothing specific just wondering how you think the PLA is thinking about this in an operational sense, given that they’ve seen a closure can be done and have a major economic effect, and obviously the U.S. navy would be able to keep it closed much longer and at least the modern Chinese navy isn’t yet up to a head-on engagement so far from home

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Anonymous #1 3d

I think China should worry about this chokehold a lot. A lot of actions that the US is taking right now, in my opinion, are to counter Chinese oil. I think it’s one of the many reasons we took Maduro & why we’re in Iran. I know China invests in a lot of ports & tons of logistic hubs in that region. But it doesn’t seem like they have any military bases there, while we do.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

One of the last things China needs in order to compete against the US, is oil. And I think we will go to great extents to prevent that. The Chinese even though their navy isn’t comparable to ours, they have far more ship building ports than we do. I think they could compete over time for this region, and I think they definitely should try to.

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Great points. I’m not up to date on how the Belt and Road Initiative is going after all this time but I know a major goal of it was to offset their massive reliance on oil from that passageway

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Anonymous geopolitics 3d

Despite their weak navy, their fishing boats are apart of their navy. The other week they did a 2,000 boat exercise where they swiftly created a massive blockade in the middle of the sea w fishing boats. It didn’t blockade anything, but that’s incredible coordination that they presented and I think it could be used against us quite effectively

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Anonymous #1 3d

Yeah, it looks like they’re trying to diversify.

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Anonymous #1 3d

They have substantial support among the populations of their neighbors, just not the governments. They can continue to control the strain which is all they need

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