
For one, it depends on the state. Now some states are having some big shifts this year but there are some who likely won’t flip. Second, it depends on the election. Senate races? Highly unlikely. House maybe. Local, you’ve got a chance. If you’re concerned about influencing it, look at polls. 3rd parties who aren’t in the 40%s (or even 35+) likely are throwaway votes. But if there’s a clear winner, some people vote in defiance of the 2-party system